Why Jamaat-e-Islami is positioned to dominate if Bangladesh elections are held

If Bangladesh holds its next election without the participation of the Awami League, history could repeat itself. In 1991, the underdog party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), managed to defeat the then-favourite Awami League. This time, Jamaat-e-Islami could play the role of the underdog and emerge as the leading party, overtaking the BNP.

According to a recent survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), the BNP would receive around 30% of the votes if the election were held next week, while Jamaat-e-Islami would receive about 26%. Another report from The Daily Star shows a similar picture, with BNP at 33% and Jamaat at 29%. In both surveys, the vote difference between the two parties is roughly 4%.

Public opinion currently favours Jamaat slightly more than the BNP. The IRI survey shows that 53% of Bangladeshis hold a favourable view of Jamaat-e-Islami, compared to 51% for the BNP. Meanwhile, 7% of voters remain undecided, and 11% declined to state their preference. This means that nearly one-fifth of voters could sway the final outcome.

Looking back at history, in the 1991 elections, the BNP won 140 seats while the Awami League received 88, even though the difference in votes was only 0.73%. This demonstrates how a small percentage difference can translate into a large seat advantage. In a scenario without the Awami League, the situation could favour Jamaat even more.

Factors that could influence Jamaat’s success

Several factors could help Jamaat-e-Islami secure a strong position in the upcoming election. First, public sentiment is slightly in their favour, which could influence undecided voters. Second, the party’s student wing holds significant influence in public universities, similar to how BNP’s Chhatra Dal mobilised voters in 1991. Student activists often campaign actively, encouraging supporters to vote and organising booths, which can significantly affect turnout.

Another factor is the behaviour of Awami League supporters. Even if the party does not participate, some of its voters may still turn up at polling centres. Historically, Awami League supporters have strong loyalty to figures like Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Sheikh Hasina. Outside of these leaders, they lack alternative ideological anchors. In an election without the Awami League, some of these voters may intentionally or emotionally vote in a way that undermines the BNP, giving Jamaat an additional advantage.

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Events like the demolition of Bangabandhu’s historic residence have also shaped public perception. Sheikh Hasina has attributed this act to the BNP, framing it as a direct attack. Her supporters now firmly believe this narrative, further complicating the electoral prospects of the BNP.

Moreover, the 18% of voters who are either undecided or unwilling to share their preference could be decisive. If Jamaat manages to attract even a portion of these voters, it could significantly increase its seat count. This is especially important in a close contest where even a few percentage points can make a major difference in parliamentary representation.

Comparing the current scenario to past elections, Jamaat now occupies a similar position to the BNP in 1991. In both cases, the party is well-positioned to capitalise on voter indecision, student mobilisation, and the absence of a dominant competitor. This combination of factors creates a strong possibility for Jamaat-e-Islami to secure a majority of seats if the Awami League does not participate.

In conclusion, while BNP currently leads Jamaat-e-Islami by a small margin, the influence of undecided voters, student activism, and Awami League supporters’ strategic voting could shift the balance. The current political and public sentiment indicates that Jamaat is well-positioned to dominate in such an election. As Bangladesh approaches the polls, these factors suggest that Jamaat-e-Islami could emerge as the main winner, similar to the unexpected outcomes seen in the past.