India’s fertility rate falls below replacement level as experts explain reasons behind the decline

India’s fertility rate has become a topic of discussion after billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk expressed concern about the country's declining birth rate. In a post on social media platform X, Musk said that India’s birth rate has fallen below the replacement level, meaning the country is no longer having enough children to naturally maintain its population size over generations.

The discussion began after reports highlighted that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped significantly over the last decade. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), India’s fertility rate now stands at 1.9 births per woman. This is below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman, which is generally considered necessary to keep a population stable without migration.

The decline in fertility is not unique to India. Many countries around the world, including China, Japan, South Korea, and several European nations, have experienced falling birth rates in recent years. However, because India is the world's most populous country, changes in its fertility rate attract significant attention from policymakers, economists, and social experts.

India overtook China in 2023 to become the world's most populous nation, with a population of more than 1.46 billion people. Despite this large population, the number of children being born per woman has steadily decreased over time.

A few decades ago, Indian families commonly had three or more children. Today, many couples are choosing to have one child, two children, or sometimes no children at all. This change reflects major social, economic, and educational developments across the country.

The UNFPA report shows that fertility rates vary greatly from one state to another. Some states continue to record relatively high fertility rates, while others have rates that are much lower than the replacement level.

For example, Bihar has one of the highest fertility rates in India at around 3.0 births per woman. Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh also have relatively high fertility levels. On the other hand, states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and the national capital Delhi have much lower fertility rates.

Delhi's fertility rate is estimated to be around 1.2 births per woman, which is lower than many developed countries. Such figures indicate how rapidly family sizes have changed in urban and developed regions of India.

Experts say that declining fertility does not immediately lead to population decline because India still has a large number of young people. However, if low fertility continues for many years, it could eventually affect population growth and age distribution.

Reasons and future impact

There are several reasons behind India's falling fertility rate. One of the biggest factors is improved education, especially among women. As more women pursue higher education and careers, many choose to marry later and delay having children.

Education has also increased awareness about family planning and reproductive health. Couples today have better access to information about contraception and can make informed decisions about family size.

Urbanisation is another important reason. Millions of people have moved from villages to cities in search of better education and employment opportunities. Life in cities is often more expensive, with higher costs for housing, healthcare, transportation, and education.

Because of these expenses, many urban couples prefer smaller families. Raising children has become significantly more costly than in previous generations, leading many families to limit the number of children they have.

Changing lifestyles have also contributed to lower fertility. Modern work schedules, career ambitions, and financial goals often encourage people to postpone parenthood. Many couples spend several years focusing on career growth before starting a family.

Healthcare improvements have played a role as well. In the past, families sometimes had more children because child mortality rates were higher. Today, better healthcare means more children survive into adulthood, reducing the need for larger families.

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Access to contraceptives has improved across India, allowing couples greater control over when and how many children they have. Government family planning programmes and increased awareness have also helped reduce unintended pregnancies.

Experts note that declining fertility brings both opportunities and challenges. In the short term, smaller family sizes can improve living standards. Parents may be able to invest more resources in each child's education, health, and overall development.

A lower fertility rate can also create what economists call a "demographic dividend." This happens when a large working-age population supports economic growth through higher productivity and employment.

However, if fertility remains low for a long time, new challenges may emerge. One major concern is population ageing. As fewer children are born and people live longer, the proportion of elderly citizens increases.

Countries such as Japan and South Korea are already dealing with ageing populations, labour shortages, and rising healthcare costs. Some experts believe India may face similar challenges in the future if fertility continues to decline.

Another concern is a shrinking workforce. Fewer young people entering the labour market could affect economic growth and place greater pressure on social welfare systems.

Despite these concerns, many experts believe India is currently in a balanced position. The country still has a large young population and continues to benefit from a growing workforce.

The UNFPA has also highlighted that while fertility rates are declining, several social issues remain important. These include gender inequality, maternal health concerns, early marriage in some regions, and unequal access to healthcare and education.

Experts say the focus should not only be on increasing birth rates but also on improving the quality of life for families. Better education, healthcare, employment opportunities, and gender equality can help ensure sustainable development regardless of fertility trends.

As India continues to develop economically and socially, its fertility patterns are likely to evolve further. The falling fertility rate reflects changing aspirations, lifestyles, and opportunities for millions of Indians. While it raises important questions about the future, it also highlights the country's ongoing social transformation and progress.