Mahagathbandhan must break NDA’s hold in North Bihar to win

To win the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan needs to make significant inroads in North Bihar, where the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has a stronghold. Bihar is divided into nine administrative zones, but for electoral analysis, North Bihar is considered as five zones: Saran (24 seats), Tirhut (49), Darbhanga (30), Kosi (13), and Purnea (24). South Bihar has five zones as well: Bhagalpur (12), Munger (22), Magadh (26), Patna (21), and Bhojpur (22).

North Bihar holds 140 of the total 243 Assembly seats, which is 58 percent of the state. This region also has a high concentration of Muslims, with over 70 percent of the state’s Muslim population residing here. For instance, 46 percent of Purnea’s population is Muslim, while Tirhut and Darbhanga have Muslim populations close to the state average of 18 percent. These demographics make North Bihar highly sensitive to communal polarisation.

In addition to the Muslim population, the region has large Hindu upper-caste and Yadav populations. Kosi has the highest Yadav population in the state at 22 percent, while Tirhut and Darbhanga also have significant upper-caste Hindu populations (around 11 percent). Scheduled Castes are distributed fairly evenly across the state, though Magadh has the highest SC population at 31 percent. These demographic factors heavily influence how parties allocate tickets and plan campaigns.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the NDA won 125 of 243 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan won 110. The NDA had an edge in North Bihar, winning 86 of 140 seats. The only zone where Mahagathbandhan led was Saran. In Purnea, the opposition vote was split due to the AIMIM capturing 11 percent of votes, which helped the NDA retain the lead. In South Bihar, Mahagathbandhan performed better, winning 61 of 103 seats.

Challenges and strategies for the Mahagathbandhan

The NDA strengthened its position further in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 173 of the total seats, while the Mahagathbandhan managed only 67. In North Bihar, the NDA led in 116 of 140 segments, a gain of 30 from 2020. Even traditionally strong zones for the opposition, like Saran and Purnea, were split due to post-poll political shifts and vote division caused by AIMIM. In South Bihar, the Mahagathbandhan continued to lead in Bhojpur and Magadh, but NDA won in other zones, including Patna and Munger.

For the Mahagathbandhan, the key challenge is reducing polarisation in North Bihar. Zones like Tirhut and Darbhanga are especially important, as they together account for a third of the state’s total seats. Tirhut has historically been a BJP stronghold, with 69 “strong” and “very strong” seats, nearly half of which lie in these two zones. The JD(U) also has a significant number of strong seats in North Bihar.

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To succeed, the Mahagathbandhan needs a strategy that shifts the focus from religion to development issues such as unemployment, corruption, and governance. Giving fewer tickets to Muslims to reduce polarisation may upset the community, while offering more tickets in South Bihar could spark counter-polarisation among other caste groups. The presence of AIMIM in Seemanchal complicates the issue further, as its politics increases communal divides.

A survey by VoteVibe shows that “vote chori” (voter manipulation) is a top concern for Muslims (33 percent) and Yadavs (20 percent). This indicates strong consolidation of these voter blocks in favor of the Mahagathbandhan but also risks counter-consolidation of other groups in favor of the NDA. Recent reports show high deletions in voter rolls in areas like Gopalganj, Kishanganj, and Purnea, two of which are in Seemanchal.

Excessive focus on polarisation in recent months may have reduced the Mahagathbandhan’s ability to shift the conversation to development issues. Moving forward, the party needs to engage strategically with communities across North Bihar, balancing caste and religious considerations. Success in North Bihar, especially in Tirhut, Darbhanga, and Purnea, will be crucial for the Mahagathbandhan to challenge the NDA’s dominance and make a serious bid for power.

The upcoming election is not just about winning seats; it is about building alliances, addressing voter concerns, and countering polarisation while focusing on governance issues. Only a well-planned, inclusive strategy can help the Mahagathbandhan turn North Bihar into a region of opportunity and challenge the NDA’s stronghold in the state.