Bihar votes again: spotlight shifts to Phase 2 after record turnout

After Bihar witnessed its highest-ever voter turnout of 64.7 per cent in the first phase of the 2025 Assembly elections, all eyes are now on Phase 2. On Tuesday, 122 constituencies across several districts will go to the polls, and the key question is — can Phase 2 match or even surpass Phase 1’s historic surge?

A look at data from the past decade suggests that Phase 2 has often performed better than Phase 1 in terms of turnout growth. While Phase 1 may have received more attention this year, Phase 2 has its own story of regional contrasts, voter mobilisation, and changing patterns of participation.

Phase 2’s steady rise and Seemanchal’s strong base

Between 2010 and 2020, voter turnout in Phase 2 constituencies rose from 53.8 per cent to 58.8 per cent — a gain of five percentage points. This increase was faster than Phase 1, which grew by about 3.9 points during the same period. Out of the 122 Phase 2 seats, 108 recorded higher turnout in 2020 compared to 2010, showing consistent growth across most areas.

One major reason for this progress is the extraordinary participation in the Seemanchal region, which includes Katihar, Kishanganj, Purnia, Araria, and Supaul districts. These areas have long been among Bihar’s most politically active. The district of Katihar alone recorded an average turnout of 64.3 per cent across three elections — higher than any other Phase 2 region, even surpassing Muzaffarpur’s 59.8 per cent in Phase 1.

In 2020, four of the top five high-turnout constituencies were from Seemanchal:

• Korha (SC), Katihar – 67.4%

• Barari, Katihar – 67.2%

• Kasba, Purnea – 66.4%

• Thakurganj, Kishanganj – 66.1%

The fifth, Chakai in Jamui, also saw a turnout of 66.1 per cent, making it an impressive outlier from southern Bihar.

The Seemanchal region’s high participation can be explained by a mix of factors — active community networks, deep-rooted political mobilisation, and competitive elections where every vote counts. Many of these are minority or mixed-population seats, where social and caste-based engagement remains intense.

However, the region’s growth in turnout is now slowing down. Since Katihar and Purnea were already above 60 per cent in 2010, their rise between 2010 and 2020 was limited to around 1–1.5 points. Once a region reaches such high participation levels, further gains naturally become harder.

Interior growth and urban apathy tell two different stories

While Seemanchal remains the heart of Bihar’s democratic participation, the biggest improvements are happening elsewhere — in the state’s interior districts. The district of Jamui stands out for its remarkable transformation. Turnout there jumped from 49.5 per cent in 2010 to 60.6 per cent in 2020 — an 11-point increase, the highest in Phase 2.

The most striking change was seen in Chakai, where voter participation surged from 47.3 per cent to 66.1 per cent — a massive 18.8-point rise, the single largest gain in either election phase. Jamui and Sikandra also recorded big jumps of 9.3 and 7.6 points, respectively. Similarly, Banka followed closely with a 10.7-point rise, and its Katoria (ST) seat jumped 15.5 points. These results show a deeper rural awakening — areas once disengaged from the political process are now leading the charge.

This shift may be due to several factors — better roads and communication networks, stronger local party structures, and the growing assertion of marginalised groups like Dalits and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), who have become more politically active in the last decade.

However, not every part of Phase 2 shares this enthusiasm. Urban regions like Bhagalpur and Nawada continue to struggle with low voter participation. Bhagalpur, one of Bihar’s most prominent cities, had a turnout of just 48.4 per cent in 2020 — lower than most rural areas and barely changed from 48.1 per cent in 2010. Nawada is even worse, with an average turnout below 50 per cent. Three of its five constituencies — Warsaliganj, Rajauli, and Hisua — all remain among the state’s lowest-performing seats.

This deepening urban-rural divide is one of Bihar’s biggest electoral puzzles. While rural voters show increasing faith in democracy, urban areas seem to be growing indifferent. The reasons could range from migration and weaker local engagement to declining trust in city-level governance.

Competitiveness doesn’t drive turnout anymore

Phase 2, like Phase 1, proves that close contests don’t necessarily mean higher voter participation. In 2020, the correlation between victory margins and turnout was almost zero. For instance, Ramgarh in Kaimur saw one of the closest races — a margin of just 189 votes — but its turnout of 64.1 per cent was not exceptionally high. Meanwhile, Korha and Barari, where the winning margins exceeded 10,000 votes, recorded the highest participation at around 67 per cent.

This shows that voter turnout is not about how tight the contest is, but about the strength of mobilisation — whether voters feel connected, motivated, and represented.

ALSO READ: The fall of the Berlin Wall: A turning point that reshaped global politics

ALSO READ: Tech glitch cripples Delhi airport operations, hundreds of flights face major delays

Fourteen constituencies, mostly in or near Seemanchal, actually saw turnout declines between 2010 and 2020. Many of these areas already had very high participation earlier, suggesting that a minor fall was natural. But it could also reflect some voter fatigue — a sense that despite their strong participation, local change has been slow.

Based on historical trends, Phase 2 is expected to record between 58 and 60 per cent turnout, slightly higher than Phase 1’s average in past years. The highest turnout will likely come from Katihar, Purnea, and Kishanganj, all of which may cross 65 per cent again. Districts like Jamui, Banka, and Madhubani may also show further improvement.

Urban seats such as Bhagalpur and Nawada, however, are unlikely to reach even 50 per cent participation, continuing the pattern of urban underperformance.

The bigger takeaway is that Phase 2 has been catching up fast. Starting from a lower base in 2010, its steady growth over the years reflects deepening engagement in interior Bihar. Whether this surge leads to political surprises or simply strengthens democracy, it shows that voters across the state — especially in rural areas — are turning out in record numbers to make their voices heard.

As Bihar prepares for the next phase of voting, the real contest may not just be between political parties — but between regions that are embracing democracy with new energy and those still waiting to rediscover it.