Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh raises concerns amid anti-Hindu violence

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman Tarique Rahman returned to Dhaka on Thursday, ending more than 17 years of self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom. He arrived with his wife Zubaida Rahman and daughter Zaima Rahman. His return comes at a politically sensitive time in Bangladesh, with renewed unrest and uncertainty in the country.

Rahman, 60, is the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who has been critically ill for some time. He said he wanted to return to be close to his mother during her health crisis. The BNP had earlier announced his return on December 12. At the airport, Rahman was welcomed by senior members of the BNP Standing Committee.

His arrival marks an important moment for the party and for Bangladesh’s political scene. Over the years, Rahman has played a key role in the BNP and is seen as a leading contender for the prime minister’s post ahead of the general elections scheduled for February. Analysts say his presence is likely to energise BNP workers and strengthen the party’s campaign.

Political unrest and India’s interest

Rahman’s return comes amid a tense political environment. Bangladesh has seen repeated violence after the removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The killing of radical youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi, who was known for his anti-India stance and was involved in the movement that ousted Hasina, has heightened instability. Hadi’s family has suggested that his murder may have been aimed at disrupting the election process.

In this context, India is closely watching developments. During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh maintained strong ties with India, kept Pakistan at a distance, and carefully managed its relationship with China. Since her removal, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has shifted policies, reaching out to Pakistan and creating some distance from India.

India is particularly cautious about the growing influence of Jamaat e Islami, an Islamist party believed to have ties with Pakistan’s intelligence and anti-India rhetoric. In comparison, the BNP is seen as a more liberal and democratic option, despite its own historical challenges. Rahman has distanced himself from Jamaat e Islami and rejected any electoral alliance with them, a move India will follow closely.

There have been signs of a potential reset in India-Bangladesh relations. On December 1, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over Khaleda Zia’s health and offered India’s support, which the BNP acknowledged. This rare gesture of warmth indicates that New Delhi may view Rahman’s BNP as a stabilising force in Bangladesh’s political landscape.

Changing power dynamics in Bangladesh

Since Hasina’s removal, the interim government disbanded the Awami League using provisions under the Anti-Terrorism Act. This has shifted political power, creating space for new rivalries. Jamaat e Islami, previously banned under Hasina, has returned to politics and is trying to increase its influence. Analysts say Rahman’s return strengthens the BNP as a credible alternative to both the interim government and Islamist groups.

Rahman’s return also highlights the generational change in the BNP. While he represents continuity from his mother’s era, he has expressed a desire to chart a new course, criticising the interim government’s authority to make long-term foreign policy decisions. His leadership is expected to unify BNP supporters and mobilise them ahead of the elections.

The broader regional impact is significant for India. Bangladesh’s stability and foreign policy orientation are key concerns for New Delhi. A BNP government under Rahman may help restore stronger India-Bangladesh ties. Conversely, the rising influence of Islamist groups aligned with Pakistan could pose challenges for the bilateral relationship.

Looking ahead

Rahman’s political future remains central to Bangladesh’s immediate roadmap. If he successfully consolidates support, he could lead the BNP to a strong showing in the upcoming elections. However, the ongoing violence, political rivalries, and the country’s fragile stability make the outcome uncertain. Observers note that ensuring free and fair elections in such an environment will be a major challenge.

His return has already sparked reactions across Bangladesh. Supporters celebrated in Dhaka, while political opponents and observers expressed concerns about rising tensions. The coming months will test Rahman’s ability to navigate the complex political environment, strengthen his party, and balance domestic and regional interests, particularly concerning India.

In summary, Tarique Rahman’s return marks a critical moment in Bangladesh’s politics. For India, his re-emergence is both a potential opportunity to restore friendly relations and a point of caution given the current instability and the presence of anti-India forces. How Rahman manages internal party dynamics, elections, and regional diplomacy will be closely monitored in both Dhaka and New Delhi.