Bihar politics sees change, yet alliances stay familiar

Bihar’s elections always bring interesting changes while keeping some things the same. Over decades, journalists and political analysts have studied Bihar closely to understand its politics, caste dynamics, and voter behavior. A lot of the state’s political language comes from ideas created to describe these changing alliances and coalitions.

In 2005, when Nitish Kumar first won the assembly elections, his victory was described as a “coalition of extremes.” This meant that upper castes, some backward classes, and Scheduled Castes joined together to defeat the strong Muslim-Yadav combination led by Lalu Prasad Yadav. Later, in 2010, Nitish’s win was called a “rainbow coalition” because he was able to attract support from a wider range of communities, including parts of the Muslim-Yadav voter base. Lalu Prasad’s RJD was then pushed to the margins of power.

The 2015 and 2020 elections were more complex. Nitish Kumar allied at different times with both the BJP and the RJD, and even though political calculations were tricky, he managed to stay relevant. By 2025, however, the situation has become more complicated. Nitish Kumar is no longer the young and dynamic leader he once was, but he still holds significant influence in Bihar’s political landscape.

The opposition in Bihar seems to have struggled this time. Leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Prasad Yadav have not convinced voters that they have a united and strong front against nearly two decades of Nitish Kumar’s rule. They missed opportunities to connect with the younger generation or offer practical solutions to local issues. Instead, the opposition has mostly focused on personal attacks against Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Many voters, especially among the OBCs, are unlikely to be swayed by these attacks. Promises like Tejashwi’s one-job-per-family idea appear unrealistic and fail to attract new support. The memory of Lalu Prasad’s misrule in the 1990s is distant for many younger voters, but incidents during the 2015 RJD-NDA alliance, like Shahabuddin’s release and influence in local politics, still leave a mark in people’s minds. Criminal influence close to the RJD also affected public perception of the opposition.

Despite rumors about his slowing pace or cognitive decline, Nitish Kumar continues to present a sober and stable image. Over nearly two decades, he has built a strong support base among women across castes and communities. Programs like the Bihar Rural Livelihood Promotion Society, also known as “Jeevika,” have promoted women’s empowerment and improved rural livelihoods. His prohibition policy has also helped reduce crime and social disorder, even though illegal liquor trade continues. Many voters see the social benefits of his policies as outweighing the negatives.

The NDA, led by Nitish Kumar and the BJP, still has the ability to bring together a broad coalition of social groups. This coalition does not include the Muslim-Yadav combination, which is still significant in Bihar, but it covers other important voter groups. Another factor adding uncertainty is the Jan Suraj Party led by Prashant Kishore. He is not tied to traditional caste-based support, but he is influencing conversations in the state with his ideas and promises. Bihar’s history shows that political surprises are possible. For example, George Fernandes won elections in constituencies dominated by upper castes and OBCs, showing that exceptions can happen.

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The 2025 elections may again create new combinations of social forces. Depending on the results, Bihar could see a “coalition of extremes,” a “rainbow coalition,” or other combinations that are difficult to predict. Nitish Kumar’s presence as a calm and experienced leader may also give the NDA an advantage, even as newer political players try to shake up the state.

In many ways, Bihar politics combines change and continuity. The alliances may shift, new parties may appear, and voter priorities may evolve. Yet some patterns remain. Personal loyalty, social identity, and Nitish Kumar’s long-standing programs continue to play a crucial role. While the opposition focuses on rhetoric, Nitish Kumar’s tangible work in governance and women’s empowerment keeps him connected to ordinary voters.

The elections in 2025, therefore, will not only determine the next government but will also show how social forces in Bihar align in the modern era. Political observers, journalists, and parties will watch closely to see whether the traditional patterns of caste and community voting hold, or whether new combinations of social forces emerge. The outcome will likely enrich the language of politics once again, providing new terms to describe Bihar’s ever-evolving political landscape.

In short, Bihar may see both change and continuity in these elections. The “coalition of extremes” and the “rainbow coalition” are still relevant ideas, but new political experiments may redefine them. Nitish Kumar’s image as a gentle and steady leader remains powerful, possibly more influential than any campaign rhetoric.