India may face harsher heat extremes in future, says new climate report

India has not yet experienced the full impact of extreme heat caused by climate change, according to a new report by researchers at Harvard University. The study says India’s land temperatures have risen more slowly than the global average in recent decades, but this temporary trend may not continue in the future.

The report warns that rising temperatures, dangerous heat waves, heavy rainfall, and unequal access to cooling could create serious challenges for millions of people in the coming years. Experts say India needs urgent planning, better public systems, and stronger protections for workers and vulnerable communities.

Between 1980-90 and 2015-24, India’s land temperatures increased by around 0.88 degrees Celsius. In comparison, the world as a whole warmed by around 1.4 degrees Celsius during the same period. While this may sound like good news, scientists say it does not mean India is safe from climate change.

Instead, the report explains that some local factors may have partly hidden the real impact of global warming. One of the biggest reasons is air pollution. Tiny particles in polluted air, known as aerosols, can reflect or absorb sunlight. This reduces the amount of heat reaching the ground during the day and creates a cooling effect.

Another important reason is irrigation. Large farming regions in northern India use heavy irrigation, which adds moisture to the air and cools land through evaporation. These factors have helped reduce winter daytime warming in some parts of north India.

Researchers found that winter daytime temperatures in northern India have warmed less than the national average. In some places, January temperatures have even shown a cooling trend. October, November, and December have also warmed more slowly in many northern areas.

However, experts say this cooling effect may not last forever.

Why the future heat risk is serious

The report says India is improving air quality through programmes such as the National Clean Air Programme and state-level pollution controls. Cleaner air will benefit health, reduce breathing diseases, and improve quality of life.

But when pollution levels fall, the cooling effect created by aerosols may also reduce. This means surface temperatures could rise faster in the future, especially in northern India during winter days.

Scientists warn that this may surprise cities, farms, businesses, and governments that rely on past weather patterns for planning. If future heat becomes stronger than expected, many current systems may fail to protect people.

The report says heat action plans, labour safety rules, crop forecasts, and financial planning based on old averages may underestimate future danger. In simple words, India may be preparing for yesterday’s climate while tomorrow’s heat becomes much worse.

This is especially worrying because millions of Indians already work in hot outdoor conditions. Around 380 million people, nearly three-fourths of the country’s workforce, are involved in heat-exposed jobs such as farming, construction, transport, street vending, and other informal work.

These workers often have limited protection from heat, little access to cooling, and no paid leave during dangerous weather. As temperatures rise, their health and income may suffer.

The report says up to 200 million people in India could face lethal heat conditions as early as 2030 if warming continues. Heat stress may also lead to job losses, lower productivity, and economic damage.

Another concern is that only about 8 percent of Indian households currently have air conditioning. This means most families depend on fans, shade, water, or basic cooling methods that may not be enough during severe heat waves.

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Rainfall and adaptation challenges

The report also highlights changing rainfall patterns. Climate models suggest India may receive more annual rainfall by the end of the century under severe climate scenarios. Some models estimate rainfall may rise by over 20 percent, while others predict increases above 60 percent.

This large uncertainty creates planning problems for farmers and policymakers. Too little rain can harm crops, while sudden heavy rain can cause floods, damage homes, and destroy infrastructure.

Experts say yearly rainfall may also become more unpredictable. Some years may bring drought, while others may see intense flooding. This makes accurate long-term weather forecasting more important than ever.

Researchers say India should focus not only on cooling roofs and buildings but also on the dangers of humid heat. High humidity makes it harder for the body to cool itself through sweating. Even temperatures that seem moderate can become dangerous when humidity is high.

The report also discusses passive cooling designs such as shaded streets, better ventilation, reflective roofs, trees, and improved building materials. These steps can lower indoor temperatures without using large amounts of electricity.

It also mentions financial tools like insurance support for workers who lose income during heat emergencies.

Experts say India now needs a strong national strategy for heat resilience. This includes separate budgets for heat protection, stronger early warning systems, emergency planning, and better coordination between states and cities.

Departments dealing with health, labour, housing, transport, and disaster management must work together instead of acting separately.

Unlike floods or cyclones, extreme heat is often invisible. But its impact can be huge. It causes illness, reduced work capacity, power shortages, higher electricity demand, and damage to roads, buildings, and public systems.

The report says India still has time to prepare, but action must begin now. The slower warming seen in past decades may have created a false sense of safety. As pollution falls and climate change continues, the country could soon face stronger and more dangerous heat extremes than ever before.