Ousted Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was given a death sentence by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) for crimes against humanity. Despite this, her party, the Awami League, has remained calm and steady. On November 13, just four days before the verdict, the party announced a "lockdown" in Dhaka. Initially, it was expected that only 40% of the city would follow the programme. However, by the end of the day, compliance reached nearly 70%.
After that, the Awami League planned a four-day series of programmes, including a shutdown the day before and on the day of the verdict. By November 15, however, the party quietly reduced emphasis on these activities. Analysts say this was a strategic move: the leadership wanted to avoid exhausting their workers and prevent giving legitimacy to a verdict they do not recognize. Most senior leaders of the party were in hiding, and only Hasina’s close workers remained active.
Observers suggest that the Awami League’s calm behaviour shows its long-term strategy. The party does not practice defensive politics. Even actions that seem conciliatory or cautious are often smart and aggressive strategies. For example, in 1971, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman did not go underground during political turmoil. He accepted imprisonment in Pakistan, which later showed the party’s strategic strength. Similarly, Hasina leaving Bangladesh on August 5 for India was a planned retreat, not a sign of weakness. Experts consider this one of the most skillful moves in Bangladeshi political history.
The party’s approach to the verdict also follows this strategy. By not escalating protests, the Awami League avoids legitimizing the current government, which it calls an illegal occupier of power. Instead, the party continues to display strength without overextending itself. Hasina’s post-verdict statements and the calm of party workers confirm that they do not plan to change course despite organizational challenges.
The Awami League is a 76-year-old party with a long history of strategic political moves. After August 5, 2024, the party has maintained a steady political path. In the past, the Awami League has focused on clearly defining ideological currents in Bangladesh. One current is religious fundamentalism, and the other is a Bengali cultural nationalism that supports peaceful coexistence and moderate Islam. By clarifying these currents, the party creates a structured political landscape where it can act as a counterweight to fundamentalist forces.
This strategic approach has been seen throughout Hasina’s career. During the anti-Ershad movement, efforts to unite the Awami League and BNP were broken by Hasina, ensuring a clear distinction between political forces. In 1988, when police fired at her in Chittagong, she chose to stay safe rather than appear publicly, conserving the strength of her party. Again in 1991, when the BNP came to power, she refused to support it to block Jamaat-e-Islami, prioritizing long-term political clarity over short-term gains.
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Even now, after her sentence, Hasina’s party appears focused on maintaining organizational strength. Party workers highlight that 60–80 million people in Bangladesh still support the Awami League. Media outlets sympathetic to the current government repeatedly question where these votes will go, indicating the party’s enduring influence. Hasina herself has said that the party’s leadership does not need to remain in her family, emphasizing that an inclusive electoral system is more important.
This calm patience contrasts with the current government, which came to power through a highly engineered process. Observers note that those in power appear far more restless than the Awami League. The party’s patient and steady approach is likely to shape Bangladesh’s political rhythm in the coming years. The verdict against Hasina, while significant, is unlikely to alter the party’s long-term trajectory. Instead, the real story is the party’s ability to remain composed and strategically positioned despite major challenges.
By balancing public presence with strategic restraint, the Awami League demonstrates that political survival and long-term influence often rely more on patience and planning than on immediate reactions. This approach, combined with Hasina’s strategic retreats and careful messaging, suggests that the party will continue to be a central player in Bangladesh’s political landscape for years to come.
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