Monsoon 2025 Arrives Early: Climate Change or Natural Shift?

India’s 2025 monsoon made an unexpected grand entry—storming into Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Maharashtra well ahead of schedule. Major cities like Mumbai and Bengaluru received monsoon showers by May 24, nearly two weeks earlier than the usual date of June 11. What’s more surprising? The monsoon covered a wide stretch in a single day, an occurrence last seen over 50 years ago in 1971.

Rare, but not unheard of

While early monsoon onset isn’t unheard of, its simultaneous wide coverage from south to west coast is rare. Meteorologists confirm this isn’t the first time—but such events are few and far between. Forecasts indicate that active monsoon conditions may persist till June 2, after which a short pause is expected—a common phenomenon attributed to dry air intrusions disrupting rain-bearing clouds.

Climate change: the silent push?

Though natural systems largely govern monsoon patterns, human-induced climate change is increasingly being seen as an influencing factor. Experts highlight several alarming changes linked to the early arrival this year:

• Less Snow, More Heat: Reduced snow cover over Eurasia and the Himalayas—down 15% from historical averages—has caused greater land heating, strengthening monsoon winds.

• Moisture Overload: Warmer global temperatures (now 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels) mean more atmospheric moisture. This led to early cloud formation over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, powered by a recent depression off the Karnataka-Goa coast.

• Powerful Somali Jet: A stronger-than-usual Somali Jet—which carries moisture from the western Indian Ocean—played a major role in pushing the monsoon into the Indian subcontinent earlier than expected.

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Other climatic drivers at play

India’s monsoon is shaped by a dance of global weather systems. This year, several factors aligned perfectly:

• Favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): This eastward-moving tropical disturbance was in Phase 3 and 4, promoting rainfall over southern India in mid-May.

• Neutral El Niño: With no El Niño to suppress rains, the path was clear for a robust monsoon.

• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Though neutral at the moment, predictions hint at a positive IOD phase emerging later in the season, possibly boosting rainfall in August–September.

Monsoon magic or Monsoon mayhem?

While early monsoon brings hope for farmers and respite from heat, it also raises concerns. Sudden, intense rains can overwhelm drainage systems, cause urban flooding, and disrupt lives—especially in metros like Mumbai.

As India faces increasing climate variability, understanding these shifts becomes vital. The 2025 monsoon could offer a glimpse into what may become the new normal in the age of climate change.

Stay tuned—this monsoon season has just begun, and it's already rewriting the rulebook.