The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has come back into global focus after fresh uncertainty in Iran following the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Many analysts now believe the powerful military organisation could play a decisive role in shaping Iran’s future.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently suggested that some Iranian military units are acting with a degree of independence based on prior instructions. His remarks have raised new questions about how much control the civilian government currently has over the country’s powerful security forces.
The IRGC, often called the Revolutionary Guard, is one of the most influential institutions in Iran. It was created after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and has since grown into a major military, political, and economic force inside the country.
The IRGC was established in 1979 by Iran’s first Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini after the Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah. Its main purpose was to protect the Islamic system and prevent internal or external threats to the new regime.
Over the decades, the organisation expanded far beyond a simple military unit. Today, the IRGC operates parallel to Iran’s regular armed forces and has its own ground forces, aerospace division, and naval units.
Most estimates suggest the IRGC has between 150,000 and 200,000 active personnel. In addition, it oversees the Basij, a large volunteer militia that helps maintain internal security and enforce social and religious rules. The Basij reportedly has hundreds of thousands of members across Iran.
The IRGC also controls the elite Quds Force, which handles overseas operations. This unit has been active in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, often supporting groups aligned with Iran’s regional interests.
Because of these activities, the United States has designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. However, inside Iran, the force is seen by supporters as a key defender of national security and revolutionary values.
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The death of Khamenei, if confirmed, could mark one of the most sensitive political moments in Iran since the 1979 revolution. Experts say the IRGC is likely to play a central role in maintaining stability during any leadership transition.
Over the years, the Revolutionary Guard has steadily increased its influence in Iran’s political system. It has strong ties with key state institutions and significant control over parts of the economy, including construction, energy, and telecommunications sectors.
Many analysts believe that in times of crisis, the IRGC often becomes the most decisive power centre in the country. Its deep organisational structure and nationwide presence give it the ability to quickly enforce order if needed.
Some observers argue that the current situation could even strengthen the IRGC’s position. With uncertainty at the top leadership level, the Guard may gain greater leverage in decision-making, especially on security and foreign policy matters.
At the same time, the situation remains complex. While the IRGC is powerful, Iran’s political system involves multiple institutions, including the presidency, parliament, and the Assembly of Experts, which formally appoints the Supreme Leader. Any long-term power shift would likely involve negotiations among these bodies.
Former US defence official Michael Mulroy has warned that the IRGC’s current messaging suggests it may take a harder line regionally. According to him, the group could escalate tensions with the United States and its allies if it feels Iran’s leadership is under threat.
Still, much depends on how Iran’s internal political process unfolds in the coming weeks. If a smooth leadership transition takes place, the IRGC may focus on maintaining stability rather than dramatically expanding its role.
What is clear is that the Revolutionary Guard remains one of the most powerful institutions in Iran. Whether the country moves toward stability or further confrontation may depend significantly on how the IRGC chooses to act during this critical period.
As the situation develops, global attention is likely to remain fixed on the Guard’s next moves and its influence over Iran’s political and military direction.
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