India’s economy recorded a strong growth of 7.8 per cent in the October–December quarter of the financial year 2025–26, according to the latest official data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The figures come under a newly revised GDP series that uses 2022–23 as the base year, replacing the earlier 2011–12 base.
The fresh numbers indicate that India continues to maintain solid economic momentum despite global uncertainties. The 7.8 per cent expansion in the third quarter is higher than the 7.4 per cent growth recorded in the same period a year earlier under the updated methodology.
Officials said the revised GDP framework aims to provide a more accurate picture of the economy by incorporating new data sources and reflecting structural changes that have taken place over the past decade.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the new series of Annual and Quarterly National Accounts Estimates on Friday. Updating the base year is a routine exercise that helps align economic measurement with the current structure of the economy.
Under the new series, the government now estimates that India’s GDP will grow by 7.6 per cent in the full financial year 2025–26. This is slightly higher than the earlier advance estimate of 7.4 per cent announced in January.
The revised data also made some changes to earlier quarterly growth figures. The growth rate for the July–September quarter of FY26 has been revised upward to 8.4 per cent from 8.2 per cent. However, the April–June quarter growth has been revised downward to 6.7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.8 per cent.
Officials explained that such revisions are normal when a new base year and improved datasets are introduced. The aim is to make national income calculations more reliable and reflective of real economic activity.
One key reason for the update was the delay caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), which postponed the routine five-year revision cycle. The ministry has indicated that detailed back-series data under the new base year is expected to be released by December 2026.
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A major feature of the new GDP series is the inclusion of several modern data sources that were either unavailable or limited in the previous framework. The updated methodology now uses GST data, e-Vahan vehicle registration information, and improved estimates of household services.
For the first time, the value of services provided by household workers such as cooks, drivers, and domestic helpers has been more systematically captured. Officials believe this will give a better picture of the informal and household sectors, which form an important part of India’s economy.
The new estimates also rely on regular large-scale surveys. These include the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). Together, these surveys help measure employment patterns, small business activity, and household economic contribution more accurately.
GST data will play a particularly important role in the revised framework. It will be used to distribute private corporate sector output across different states and to cross-check annual accounts. This is expected to improve both the quality and the regional accuracy of GDP estimates.
Economists say the strong 7.8 per cent growth in the third quarter reflects continued resilience in domestic demand, government spending, and services activity. However, they also caution that global economic conditions, including geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, remain key risks going forward.
From a policy perspective, the latest numbers provide comfort to policymakers that India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. The government has repeatedly emphasised that structural reforms, digitalisation, and infrastructure spending are supporting long-term growth.
At the same time, analysts note that sustaining high growth will require continued focus on job creation, private investment, and rural demand recovery. Much will also depend on how global financial conditions and commodity prices evolve in the coming months.
For now, the updated GDP series and the latest quarterly data together paint a picture of an economy that is expanding steadily while improving the accuracy of how that growth is measured.
With more detailed back-series data expected later this year, economists and investors will be watching closely to see how the revised methodology reshapes the long-term view of India’s economic performance.
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