The Bihar Assembly elections of 2025 are approaching, and political analysts are closely watching Muslim-dominated seats. Many assume that the Mahagathbandhan, which includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Indian National Congress, three Left parties, and the Vikassheel Insaan Party, would have an advantage. After all, Muslims form a core support base for this alliance.
However, past election results show a different picture. In 2020, there were 51 Assembly seats in Bihar where Muslims make up a large portion of the population. Of these, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies won 35 seats. This gave the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a winning rate of nearly 70 per cent in these constituencies. This is much higher than their performance in other parts of the state.
Looking at history, the BJP’s success in Muslim-influenced areas is not new. In 2010, the BJP did even better. Their performance dipped slightly in 2015, mainly because the BJP and its key ally, Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), contested separately. Still, in each of the past three elections, the BJP has often been the single largest party in these seats.
These 51 Muslim-dominated constituencies are spread across seven districts: Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria, Purnia, Darbhanga, Paschim Champaran, and Sitamarhi. In these areas, Muslims make up at least 20 per cent of the population. Kishanganj stands out as the only Muslim-majority district, with nearly 68 per cent of its population being Muslim. Katihar has 45 per cent Muslims, Araria 43 per cent, and Purnia 38 per cent. The remaining three districts — Darbhanga, Paschim Champaran, and Sitamarhi — have around 22 per cent Muslims each.
Kishanganj remains a challenge for the BJP, as the party has not yet been able to make significant inroads there. But in the other six districts, the BJP and its allies have been strong. For example, in Katihar, the BJP won three out of seven seats in 2020, while one seat went to its ally, the JD(U). Similarly, in Araria and Purnia, the BJP-JD(U) combine won eight of the 13 seats. This shows that even in Muslim-influenced areas, the NDA can perform well.
There are also other districts with a significant Muslim population, though slightly lower than 20 per cent. These include Purvi Champaran, Supaul, Madhubani, and Siwan. Together, these four districts account for 35 Assembly seats. The election pattern here is similar to the Muslim-majority or high-population districts. In both the 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party. In 2010, the JD(U) led in these areas. In 2020, the combined tally of the BJP and JD(U) was 24 seats out of 35, and in 2010, it was even higher at 31 seats.
Why does this happen despite surveys showing Muslim support for the Mahagathbandhan? Political analysts say the Muslim vote often gets divided. Many constituencies have multiple Muslim candidates from different parties. When voters support different candidates, the Mahagathbandhan loses the advantage, and the NDA can win even with fewer Muslim votes.
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Kishanganj is an exception, where the Mahagathbandhan is likely to perform better. But in other districts with high Muslim populations, the BJP has been able to maintain its edge. The combination of strategic alliances, voter base, and division of votes among multiple candidates has worked in favor of the NDA.
Analysts also note that the BJP’s focus on development, infrastructure, and welfare schemes in these districts has helped the party gain support across communities. Even in areas where Muslims are a significant part of the population, voters often consider other factors, including governance, local leadership, and candidate popularity, before voting.
Surveys by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies have consistently shown that Muslims in Bihar tend to favor the Mahagathbandhan. However, the actual election results tell a different story. This mismatch between survey expectations and real outcomes highlights the complexity of Bihar’s politics.
Looking ahead to the 2025 elections, the same pattern may continue. If multiple Muslim candidates contest in the same constituency, vote fragmentation could again reduce the Mahagathbandhan’s chances. Meanwhile, the BJP and its allies are likely to continue leveraging strong local leadership, strategic alliances, and campaign planning to maintain their edge in these constituencies.
In conclusion, while Muslim-dominated seats are important in Bihar, historical data shows that the NDA, led by the BJP, has often been successful here. The Mahagathbandhan may appear to have strong support in surveys, but multiple factors, including vote fragmentation and alliance strategies, influence the actual results. Bihar’s elections continue to be unpredictable, and both alliances will need careful planning to secure victories in Muslim-influenced constituencies.
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