Bangladesh is facing a tense political situation as uncertainty grows over whether the national election, planned for February 2026, will actually happen. The interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has announced plans to hold polls before the month of Ramzan, but the process already appears one-sided. The country’s main political force, the Awami League, has been suspended by an executive order, and the Election Commission has said it will not be allowed to contest. This raises serious questions about the credibility of any upcoming vote.
In Bangladesh’s electoral history, the last widely accepted fair election was in 2008, when both major parties — the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) — participated freely. At that time, the Awami League won with nearly 48% of votes, while the BNP secured around 32.5%. By contrast, the 2024 election, held under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, was criticised for excluding about 40% of voters. Many now fear the Yunus-led interim government might stage a similar one-sided election.
Even the participation of the Jatiya Party, Bangladesh’s third-largest party, remains unclear. If it too is barred, over half the country’s electorate — including supporters of the Awami League and its allies — would be left out. Such exclusion, experts say, would make the polls meaningless, as the results would not reflect the will of the people.
The interim government’s head, Muhammad Yunus, has claimed that the Awami League’s public support has dropped to just 20%. But many analysts believe this is far from reality. The Awami League has long maintained deep grassroots support built on historical and emotional ties to the country’s independence movement and the legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founder of Bangladesh.
The political atmosphere in Bangladesh today reminds many of past turbulent times. After Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s assassination in 1975, the Awami League suffered internal divisions but managed to remain a key political force. Over the decades, even when elections were not fully free or fair, the Awami League consistently secured significant portions of the vote — 26% in 1986, 30% in 1991, and over 37% in 1996. These results showed that despite challenges, the party’s support base remained stable.
Analysts point out that the Awami League’s strength comes from its “Awami families” — generations of loyal supporters who continue to view the party as part of their identity. The slogans of “Sheikh Mujib,” “Bangabandhu,” and “Joy Bangla” are still heard in banned processions, even after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in 2024. Many within the party see their recent downfall not as a political defeat but as the result of a conspiracy — especially after Muhammad Yunus described Hasina’s ouster as “a long, meticulous design” during a speech at the Clinton Foundation.
Meanwhile, repression against Awami League supporters and minority communities has intensified. Out of 55 registered political parties, only 18 — mostly aligned with Yunus’s interim setup — support the current government. Despite the crackdown, no Awami League members have switched to rival parties like the BNP or Jamaat-e-Islami. Instead, movement is taking place within right-wing groups, suggesting growing instability among the interim regime’s own backers.
The BNP, once a powerful opposition force, also appears divided and confused. Some within the party believe they can easily gain power if the Awami League is excluded. Others fear that a voterless election would only lead to chaos and instability, similar to what happened in 1996 when the BNP’s one-sided poll was rejected by the people. That election forced the BNP to leave power after just 12 days. Sheikh Hasina’s 2024 one-party election also faced mass discontent, toppling her within six months.
The current state of Bangladesh is fragile. Law and order have deteriorated, prices of essential goods have shot up, and public frustration is growing. Even middle-class citizens now admit that conditions were better under the previous government. The BNP, despite being the main opposition, finds itself trapped. It joined peace talks in Doha and Istanbul at the urging of friendly nations like Qatar and Turkiye, but remains unsure whether the promised elections will truly take place.
Inside the BNP, fear and disagreement persist. Senior leaders like Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir have repeatedly urged unity among opposition groups to prevent the “return of fascists” — a reference to the Awami League. Yet, the BNP’s alliance with conservative and non-political actors has created unease among its members. Some worry that by aligning with extremist voices, the BNP risks losing credibility and control.
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Adding to the confusion, Yunus recently said at an international forum that “only one party” — believed to be the BNP — still wants elections in February. This admission highlights how isolated the BNP has become. Most other parties and groups now favour extending the interim period instead of rushing into polls.
Meanwhile, reports suggest that the interim administration has even altered laws related to the army, moving it outside traditional oversight structures. This has raised concern within the military and among ordinary citizens. The judiciary, bureaucracy, and media are also under strain, deepening public mistrust in state institutions.
Foreign observers are uncertain about how events will unfold. Diplomats in Dhaka privately admit that the February 2026 election looks unlikely to be inclusive or peaceful. Some fear that if held without broad participation, it could trigger unrest similar to previous political crises.
For now, the big question remains: Will Bangladesh actually hold a genuine election in February? Or will it once again witness a one-sided vote that leaves the people watching from the sidelines?
As of late October 2025, the situation remains fluid — unstable, unpredictable, and shadowed by the ghosts of Bangladesh’s past political battles.
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