Travelling across Bihar ahead of the November Assembly elections reveals a political landscape that defies simple categorisation. Covering more than 2,000 km across the state’s nine administrative zones—Sasaram, Bodh Gaya, Munger, Bhagalpur, Purnea, Saharsa, Darbhanga, Motihari, and Patna—interactions with voters, journalists, community leaders, and local influencers show a mood that balances between desire for change (“badlaav”) and comfort with the status quo (“jo hai, wo theek hai”). Despite Nitish Kumar having governed for nearly two decades, strong anti-incumbency sentiment is not universally felt. Instead, the political environment appears remarkably balanced, with the outcome likely decided by micro-level factors rather than broad waves of opinion.
Traditional vote banks remain largely intact. The NDA continues to enjoy loyalty from upper castes, Kurmis, Koeris, EBCs, and Mahadalits, while the Mahagathbandhan retains core support among Yadavs and Muslims. Voters cite caste identities as crucial in their choices. Yet there is a widespread dissatisfaction with incumbent MLAs, who are often accused of neglecting constituencies. This could lead to ticket denials across parties, where alliances that fail to replace non-performing representatives may face backlash. Corruption and bureaucratic dominance further fuel voter frustration. Across the state, residents complain about petty bribes and administrative inefficiency, demonstrating that governance concerns cut across party lines.
Another enduring factor is the fear of “jungle raj,” especially among upper castes and EBC voters within the NDA. Many support the alliance not out of enthusiasm but out of apprehension about alternatives. The sentiment of “majboori vote” underscores the conservative streak in voting patterns, influenced by past experiences and concerns over law and order.
Political strategist Prashant Kishor has generated curiosity among younger, educated, and middle-class voters, especially in southern Bihar. While his initiatives like the Jan Suraaj Party attract attention, skepticism remains. Many admire the idea but are unsure whether his political ventures will succeed or effectively address local issues. Muslim voters, in particular, express doubt about his alignment, sometimes viewing him as a potential BJP ally. Despite this, admiration does not always translate into votes, showing the limitations of personality-driven politics.
Bihar’s regions display distinct voting patterns. Northern Bihar shows higher religious polarization, whereas southern Bihar reflects a more caste-based political calculus. In north Bihar, voters express concerns about communal tensions influencing politics, while in south Bihar, caste arithmetic, particularly among Dalits and backward communities, shapes electoral choices. The Jan Suraaj Party has garnered more support in southern regions, though its influence remains uncertain in northern districts.
Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe, and EBC voters express dissatisfaction with their representation, particularly within the NDA. Allegations of “vote chori” by Rahul Gandhi resonate with some of these communities, creating opportunities for the Opposition to make inroads. Communities like Rajaks, Chandravanshis, and Kushwahas are willing to consider alternatives if adequately represented. Such sentiments underscore the role of local and caste-specific issues over broad party narratives.
Caste remains a decisive factor in Bihar. Social engineering and arithmetic often override ideological considerations. Electoral outcomes are shaped not only by party campaigns but by the careful calculation of caste demographics. This dynamic emphasizes the importance of ticket selection and alliance formations. Political parties must balance entrenched loyalties with the demand for fresh faces, ensuring that candidates appeal to their constituencies while maintaining broader electoral alliances.
The Voter Adhikar Yatra has energized Mahagathbandhan cadres, especially among Yadavs and Muslims, enhancing the bloc’s mobilization efforts. Yet, Muslim voters express concerns about the absence of prominent community leaders alongside Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, highlighting sensitivities regarding representation. Even minor candidates, like Mukesh Sahani with limited support, have received visible attention, which some voters perceive as disproportionate.
ALSO READ: Kejriwal targets Congress leadership in new political move
ALSO READ: Uttarakhand landslide buries family, heroic mother shields children
In Bihar, micro-level factors—caste identity, candidate performance, corruption perception, law and order, and hyperlocal grievances—play a more decisive role than overarching narratives of development or ideology. Alliances must navigate these intricate dynamics carefully. Success will depend on accurately identifying non-performing incumbents, selecting candidates with strong local appeal, and ensuring adequate representation of key communities while addressing voter concerns over governance and security.
As the state heads into the elections, Bihar remains politically balanced, with the electorate oscillating between desire for change and comfort in the familiar. Regional variations, caste loyalties, candidate selection, and performance perceptions will determine outcomes. In this tight contest, no single factor guarantees victory. The November Assembly elections are likely to reflect a nuanced interplay of continuity and change, where hyperlocal dynamics, demographic considerations, and governance concerns converge to shape the final verdict.
Bihar’s electoral mood is thus neither decisively anti-incumbency nor overwhelmingly supportive. Instead, it reflects a state caught between aspiration and caution, with voters weighing local realities against broader political narratives. In such a context, alliances and parties that read the terrain carefully, act decisively on underperforming MLAs, and respect the complex social fabric will have the best chance of success in the coming elections.
Copyright © © 2022 Copyright. All Rights Reserved with Arth Parkash