India’s neighbourhood has been witnessing a series of political upheavals over the past few years. Governments have fallen in several countries, often suddenly and dramatically, creating instability and uncertainty. Myanmar, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal have all seen rapid political changes, with leaders removed from power through coups, protests, or mass uprisings. These events serve as a warning for India to understand the dynamics of regime change and learn valuable lessons to safeguard its democracy.
For example, in Myanmar, despite winning the 2020 elections, Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested in February 2021 by the military, known as the Tatmadaw. She is now serving a 27-year prison sentence. Similarly, in Afghanistan, the Taliban regained control in August 2021, overthrowing the elected government and prompting the rapid withdrawal of US and NATO forces. Pakistan saw the removal of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was jailed after being ousted, while coup attempts by his supporters failed.
Sri Lanka experienced massive protests in 2022 against President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Angry crowds stormed the presidential palace, leading to Rajapaksa fleeing the country and resigning from Singapore. Bangladesh also faced political turmoil when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was reportedly forced out on August 5, 2024, after large protests. Nepal recently saw Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli leave office following intense protests by young citizens, highlighting growing unrest in the region.
These events illustrate how quickly regimes can collapse when public dissatisfaction is mobilized effectively. India, as the region’s largest democracy, must pay attention to these developments to prevent similar crises. While India’s democratic institutions are strong, the country has faced attempts to provoke mass unrest, such as during the anti-CAA protests, anti-farm law demonstrations, and incidents like the Nupur Sharma controversy. The Narendra Modi government managed these challenges with caution and foresight, preventing them from escalating into larger crises.
First, popularity and strong public support are critical. Governments facing threats from regime-change agents need a solid base of citizen support. If a large mob is mobilized against a government, the ruling party must have the ability to counter-mobilize even more supporters to maintain stability. Nepal’s Oli, for instance, relied on weak coalitions and neglected to strengthen his party’s grassroots connections, leaving him vulnerable. A genuinely popular government with strong citizen support is far more resilient against political upheavals.
Second, leaders must stay connected with the people and avoid isolation. Bangladesh’s Hasina and Sri Lanka’s Rajapaksa failed to maintain ties with their party workers and grassroots leaders. They concentrated power among a few loyalists, cutting themselves off from the ground realities. This disconnect created space for opposition forces and protestors to exploit dissatisfaction. Leaders who remain close to their supporters and maintain transparent communication are better equipped to handle crises.
Third, governments should not over-rely on the police, army, or other government machinery to handle unrest. The most effective way to resist externally sponsored mobs is through the active engagement of the ruling party’s supporters. Uniformed forces may either act harshly, generating sympathy for the protesters, or fail to act decisively when overwhelmed. A government with a strong, organized cadre of supporters on the streets can manage unrest more effectively than relying solely on state forces.
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India’s democracy benefits from seasoned security forces and a large, politically aware population that values the ballot box over violent protests. While India is relatively stable compared to its neighbours, it must remain vigilant. External forces such as the US, China, or Islamist collectives may attempt to influence political outcomes, and India must be prepared to respond strategically.
In conclusion, the regional coups offer clear lessons for India. First, maintain genuine popularity and public trust. Second, keep leaders connected to the grassroots to prevent isolation. Third, cultivate a strong support network within the party rather than relying only on government machinery. By learning from the experiences of its neighbours, India can safeguard its democracy, strengthen its institutions, and ensure stability in a region that remains politically volatile.
The challenges in the neighbourhood highlight the importance of foresight, organization, and citizen engagement for any government. India’s democratic resilience, coupled with its experienced governance and informed electorate, provides an advantage, but continuous vigilance and proactive measures are necessary to prevent potential disruptions from both internal and external actors.
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