Familiarity with a leader or a government does not always lead to anger. Sometimes, it leads to disappointment, frustration, or even quiet resentment. But when that resentment begins to turn into anger, it should set off alarm bells.
Since 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have faced ups and downs, but large-scale voter anger has rarely been visible. Today, however, signs of frustration are growing.
The NDA has the political skills and experience to course correct, but the warning signals cannot be ignored. The survey points to three major problems—economic distress, public perception of inequality, and corruption. Together, they could become the triple whammy that challenges the NDA in the run-up to 2029.
The first and most pressing issue is the economy. Since 2014, voters have praised Modi’s handling of the economy in successive surveys. Yet, many of the same voters say their personal economic situation has not improved. In fact, more people in the latest MoTN survey say they are worse off today than they were in 2014.
The most telling number is this: more than 60% of respondents consistently say it is difficult to manage family budgets, despite the world’s largest free food programme covering 800 million people. That number has not improved even after two NDA victories.
Unemployment and inflation remain the top concerns. The sharpest warning sign for the government is the comparison with former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. In August 2024, 57% of respondents said Modi handled the economy better, while only 35% gave Singh the credit. By August 2025, the numbers had nearly evened out: 45% for Modi, 43% for Singh. That is a steep drop in just one year.
For a government that has built its reputation on growth, infrastructure, and development, the sense that ordinary families are struggling with jobs and expenses is a serious political risk.
The second red flag is about who voters think actually benefits from NDA policies. In every survey for years, more than 55% of respondents say that the biggest winners are industrialists and big businessmen. Less than 10% believe that farmers or small businesses are the main beneficiaries.
This is where Rahul Gandhi’s repeated claim—that Modi works only for a handful of billionaires—finds some resonance. It has not yet translated into massive electoral damage for the BJP, but the perception is slowly spreading.
The third issue is corruption. Since 2019, more than half the respondents said the NDA was successful in controlling corruption. That faith has now declined. In the latest survey, 47% say the government has failed on corruption, while only 45% say it has succeeded.
The backdrop is worrying: collapsing highways, caved-in bridges, flooded cities, and disasters like the 2022 Morbi bridge collapse that killed over 130 people. These are visible reminders of poor governance and corruption. So far, they have not translated into anger on the streets, but history suggests that once the public mood turns, it can shift very quickly.
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Indian politics is full of examples where leaders who seemed invincible were suddenly brought down by public anger. Winston Churchill won a world war but lost elections soon after. Indira Gandhi was hailed as a goddess in 1971 but faced massive street protests within two years. V.P. Singh rose as an anti-corruption hero in 1989 but collapsed politically in less than a year. The Congress won decisively in 2009, but by 2010, corruption scandals had completely shifted voter sentiment.
The lesson is clear: public opinion can turn quickly, especially when the three big factors of economic stress, inequality, and corruption converge. That is the triple whammy that destroyed the UPA in 2014, and that is the triple whammy the NDA now risks facing.
So far, Modi has relied on large welfare schemes—Jan Dhan accounts, direct benefit transfers, and free food—to cushion voters against hardships. These schemes helped deliver victories in 2019 and 2024. But can the same promises win votes in 2029, more than a decade later? Voters may have already expressed their gratitude, and they may now be looking for fresh solutions to unemployment, rising prices, and failing infrastructure.
The NDA still has one advantage: the Opposition is divided, and most of its leaders are also accused of corruption. There is no single mass movement like Anna Hazare’s campaign in 2011 to channel public frustration. Rahul Gandhi’s “Vote-Chori” slogan is not yet a serious threat. But political landscapes can change fast.
The big question for Modi and the NDA is this: will they act on these warning signs now, or will they assume that their popularity and past welfare schemes are enough to protect them?
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