Donald Trump has once again shaken up global trade with his unpredictable actions. This time, India is in the spotlight. The former U.S. president recently announced a 25% tariff on all merchandise exports from India, along with an undisclosed penalty. At the same time, he is being far more lenient with China — a country often seen as America’s biggest rival. This move raises a big question for India: Is it more dangerous to be Trump’s friend than his enemy?
Trump’s style of diplomacy often treats friends worse than foes. While adversaries like China are given room to negotiate, allies like India, Japan, and South Korea are being hit with heavy tariffs. It’s a strange approach, but not a new one. Even in his earlier term as president, Trump used pressure tactics with allies to get what he wanted. And for India, which once took the rare step of openly supporting Trump’s election bid, this is a harsh reality check.
The 25% tariff is a big hit, but it’s not the end of the world for India’s economy. Merchandise exports to the U.S. make up around 1.85% of India’s GDP. A major portion of this — such as pharmaceutical products — is currently exempt from the new tariff. But other sectors like jewellery, electronics (including iPhones), and garments may be impacted. These industries employ thousands, and any dip in exports can affect livelihoods.
However, the final impact will depend on which Indian goods remain attractive to U.S. consumers even after the tariff. If demand holds up, the damage might be less severe. But make no mistake — this move will cause concern in export hubs across India.
Trump’s decision may also be a way to push India to open up its dairy and agriculture markets. These are politically sensitive areas in India, as they involve millions of rural workers and small farmers. Giving the U.S. more access to these sectors could be seen as a betrayal of local interests — something no Indian government would want to be accused of, especially with elections always around the corner.
The Modi government has a history of backing off on reforms when public opposition rises. This happened with the farm laws in 2021. The laws were repealed after large protests, but many of their provisions were quietly implemented later. A similar thing is happening now with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC). Officially, there is hesitation. Unofficially, the process moves forward. The government always tries to avoid looking like it’s going against the public mood, especially farmers.
India’s close relationship with Donald Trump was once seen as a bold move. Prime Minister Narendra Modi even went as far as to support Trump’s re-election bid — a first in Indian diplomacy. But has that friendship helped India in the long run?
The Trump administration repeatedly claimed to have helped mediate between India and Pakistan — especially in de-escalating tensions after the Pulwama attack. But India has never publicly credited Trump for this. On the other hand, Pakistan praised him, even nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize and investing in Trump-related crypto ventures. This might have influenced how Trump views both countries.
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Trump is driven by two things — power and legacy. He’s rich, yes, but what he wants more is respect and recognition. He has long envied Barack Obama’s global standing and even his Nobel Peace Prize. Trump wants something similar, and he’s willing to do anything to get it.
This mindset explains why Trump treats adversaries like equals — because he sees them as serious players he can negotiate with and gain prestige. But when it comes to friends, like India, he assumes they will bend without much resistance. This is the Trumpian paradox: the closer you are to him, the more he expects from you — and the more likely you are to be hurt.
India is now stuck in a tricky spot. Trying to stay close to Trump hasn’t earned the country any special favors. Instead, it has brought economic penalties. And distancing from him could risk diplomatic backlash. It’s like the classic story where a friend walks into your shop, grabs candy without paying, and says it’s fine — “because we’re friends.” But when you protest, he gets angry and causes more trouble than a stranger would have.
The lesson? With Trump, it might actually be safer to be on the outside looking in than standing too close. As India watches its “friend” put up new trade walls, it may be time to rethink how deep that friendship should go.
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